2008 Woodie Awards
The Last Word
Who's on first this year in MLB?
Reggie Walker
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Despite the fact most teams have played 15 games, nothing--and I mean nothing--is set in stone. As of Monday, April 18, the New York Yankees were in last place in the American League East and the Washington Nationals were in first in the National League East, two things that surely won't be the case come September.
Here is a look at how I see the 2005 campaign turning out, as well as predictions on who will take home the MVP awards and the Cy Young: AL West: I know many of you are holding your breath. Please, Reggie, please predict my beloved Mariners will finish in first and make up for last year's disappointment.
Sorry, Mariner fans, I can't do that. As a matter of fact, I believe the Mariners are going to finish in last place for the second consecutive year. Sure, the Mariners had a productive off-season signing NL MVP runner-up Adrian Beltre and Northwest slugger Richie Sexson, but the Ms failed to address their concerns both in the starting rotation and in the all-important bullpen. The Mariners' starting five went a miserable 30-50 in 2004, and only one of the five starters returns with a record that was better than .500 (Bobby Madritsch, 6-3). The Mariners never should have traded Freddy Garcia. Granted, they received rising star Jeremy Reed in return, but time and time again, we see that pitching wins ball games.
Well if the Mariners aren't going to win the division, then who is? I believe that the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim are going to win the West. The Angels return the majority of their team that won their first division title in 18 years last season. The Angels' lost spark-plug David Eckstein, hot-tempered Jose Guillen and fireball closer Troy Percival.
The Angels' management, despite being miffed over the name change (formerly the Anaheim Angels), did a magnificent job replacing the departed free agents. The Angels signed Orlando Cabrera, fresh off a World Series ring, to replace Eckstein; the veteran Steve Finley, who is showing no signs of slowing down, to replace Guillen; and they move Francisco Rodriguez closer to fill the role of the departed Percival. Many, myself included, believe that Rodriguez has the best stuff in the league. He throws a 97 miles-per-hour fastball and a filthy, huge breaking curveball to keep hitters off balance.
The newcomers, as well as reigning AL MVP Vladimir Guerrero, will propel the Angels to their second division title in as many seasons. Don't sleep on the A's either. Many are writing them off, but they still have great starting pitching in fireballs Rich Harden and Danny Haren, and the always tough Barry Zito with his nasty 12-6 curveball. The A's offense won't be lacking either, with Eric Byrnes, Eric Chavez, Erubiel Durazo, Scott Hatteberg, Jason Kendall and Mark Kotsay, who all hit over .275 in 2004.
AL Central: The Minnesota Twins are going to walk away with this division. The Twins lost standout shortstop Christian Guzman to free agency, but the emergence of catcher Joe Mauer and Luis Rivas will more than make up for Guzman's offensive production. The Twins return perhaps the best starting rotation in baseball with reigning AL Cy Young winner Johan Santana heading the rotation. Santana went 20-6 in 2004 and an even more impressive 13-0 after the All-Star Break. The Twins also feature Brad Radke, who has 128 career wins, as well as up-and-coming right handers Kyle Lohse and Carlos Silva.
The only team that could challenge the Twins is the Chicago White Sox, and they would need a miracle for that to happen. The White Sox would have to have all of their everyday starters stay healthy, most notably the injury-prone Jermaine Dye and Frank Thomas. The Sox of the south side would also need veteran right handers Jose Contreras and El Duke, Orlando Hernandez, to completely resurrect their careers and become the pitchers that they were once tabbed to be.
AL East: I would like to apologize to the Red Sox Nation. The Yankees are going to win the division. I refuse to believe that a team with a $200 million pay roll won't capture the division title. The Yankees lost nobody of significance and bring in perhaps the greatest left handed pitcher of all time, Randy Johnson, to do one thing and one thing only: beat the Red Sox. Look for Alex Rodriguez to have a monster season. Rodriguez made it his off-season goal to prove to all that he is worth every penny of his 10-year $252 million dollar contract. Not only will Rodriguez break out, but Hideki Matsui will improve upon last season's gaudy numbers and propel the Yankees to a rather easy AL East Division title.
The Red Sox will not go down without a fight. The additions of Edgar Rentaria, Matt Clement, Wade Miller and David Wells no doubt improve a team that won its first World Series in 86 years, but the Sox will play second fiddle to the Yankees, at least in the regular season.
Don't be surprised if you read every once in awhile that the Yankees and Red Sox are having trouble with the Toronto Blue Jays or Baltimore Orioles. The Blue Jays have four legitimate starters in Miguel Batista, Gustavo Chacin, Roy Halladay and Ted Lilly. The Orioles offer a high-powered offense led by up-and-coming star Brian Roberts and proven sluggers Javy Lopez, Melvin Mora, Rafael Palmeiro, Sammy Sosa and Miguel Tejada. The Tampa Bay Devil Rays will, once again, finish last. AL MVP: Rodriguez, only problem will be that teammate Matsui will steal some votes.
AL CY Young: Santana. Johnson will compete, but Santana will have more wins and virtually the same strikeout numbers and earned run average. Now, here is a preview of the National League.
NL West: This division features the best player in the game; however he might not be suiting up until June. The man I am talking about is, of course, Barry Bonds. Fresh off his seventh MVP season, Bonds claims he is "exhausted both physically and mentally and needs a break." Without Bonds, the Giants can kiss their playoff hopes goodbye and their hated rival Los Angeles Dodgers will run away with the division crown.
I am picking the Dodgers to indeed do so for the second year in a row. The Dodgers' MLB-best defense has declined. They also lost sluggers Adrian Beltre and Steve Finally. However, the acquisitions of J.D. Drew, who is coming off his most productive season as a major leaguer; Derek Lowe, who pitched the Red Sox to a ring last year; and sluggers Jeff Kent and Jose Valentin will be more than enough to compliment the returnees from last year's squad. Look for Jeff Weaver to break out, as well as rising stars Milton Bradley and Cesar Isturis.
The Arizona Diamondbacks have improved, but don't have the pitching or hitting to compete with the Dodgers or Giants.
The San Diego Padres had an amazing season in 2004, but can a rotation with Woody Williams as the number two pitcher compete for a division title? No. However, I love the Padres' offense and believe they are only one or two players away from being a legitimate threat to come out of the National League.
The Colorado Rockies may end the season with the worst record in the National League, but that doesn't mean they won't be fun to watch. Look out for Preston Wilson to bounce back from a sub-par year. Also, look for shortstop Clint Barnes and second basemen Aaron Miles to be the best up-the-middle offense in the league. As always, Todd Helton will put up huge numbers while playing in Coors Field.
NL Central: Featuring one of the best offenses in the MLB, I feel that the St. Louis Cardinals will repeat as Central Division winners. Larry Walker is their number two hitter and they have Jim Edmonds, Albert Pujols and Scott Rolen protecting him. The Cardinals also brought in a proven winner in Mark Mulder in an attempt to return to the World Series.
The Chicago Cubs will be competitive once again, and how can they not be? With a rotation of Greg Maddux, Mark Prior, Glendon Rusch, Kerry Wood and rising star Carlos Zambrano, a team with little leaguers in the rest of the lineup would compete. Prior and Wood, however, are fighting injuries, and Maddux is getting up there in age. The Cubs just do not have the talent to make the playoffs in 2005.
The Houston Astros impressed last season but lost key offensive threats Carlos Beltran and Jeff Kent. The 'Stros return a strong offense and a better-than-average pitching staff, and perhaps the MLB's best closer in Brad Lidge, but just do not posses the depth or fire power to compete with the Cardinals.
The Milwaukee Brewers, Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds all have individual talent, but are a few years away from competing in the Central. Keep your eye on Lyle Overbay for the Brewers, who should hit 30 homeruns and drive in 100-plus, as well as Jason Bay and Oliver Perez. Perez is being heralded as the next Randy Johnson. Ken Griffey, Jr., and Adam Dunn of the Reds are also noteworthy. Both are capable of 40 HR/100 RBI campaigns in 2005.
NL East: No doubt the toughest division in MLB. I am picking against the Atlanta Braves. Sure, they have won 13 division titles in a row and acquired Tim Hudson, the pitcher with the highest winning percentage over the last six seasons. But, the Florida Marlins are just too tough. They have Josh Beckett, A.J. Burnett and Dontrelle Willis, and then add Al Leiter in the mix? They have an incredible pitching staff. Not to mention free agent pick-up Carlos Delgado. The Marlins also have the best up-the-middle defense with Gold Glovers Alex Gonzalez at shortstop and Luis Castillo at second base. Look for Miguel Cabrera to improve upon his .294, 33 homerun, 112 RBI season. Plus, a healthy Mike Lowell makes the Marlins the team to beat not only in their division, but in the whole National League.
If the Braves aren't careful, not only will they finish out first, but they could finish as low as fourth. The Philadelphia Phillies are a tough ball club with a great offense. If Pat Burrell can turn it around and Jim Thome does what he is capable of, the Phillies could push the Marlins for the division crown. However, the Phillies don't have the pitching to compete with the Marlins or the Braves and will most likely finish third.
Another team that could push for the division title is the New York Mets. I feel the Mets are still about three or four players away from competing, but an offense that offers Carlos Beltran, Cliff Floyd, Mike Piazza and Jose Reyes is a good start. Bringing in Pedro Martinez helps, but the rest of the rotation and the bullpen are lacking.
The Washing Nationals are a feel-good story and would have a chance to compete if they were in the Central or West divisions. Sadly, for Nationals fans, this first-year outfit is stuck in the loaded AL East. Look for Livan Hernandez to lead the league in complete games once again, and for rising stars Jose Guillen and Termel Sledge to put up big numbers in the first season of Washington baseball since 1966.
NL MVP: Albert Pujols. Yes, Edmonds and Rolen will steal votes, but with the numbers Pujols is poised to put up, it won't matter.
NL Cy Young: Jeff Weaver. For those of you who don't remember, Weaver was the number one pitching prospect in the Detroit Tiger organization before being dealt to the Yankees. In New York he struggled with the media, and the Yankees shipped him out west to L.A. He had a great season with the Dodgers in 2004 and look for him to baffle National League hitters in 2005.
World Series Prediction: Florida Marlins over Minnesota Twins in six games.
These are my predictions for the 2005 Major League Baseball season; hopefully, I am as fortunate with my picks as I was with my NCAA basketball selection.